Impact of extreme climates on sustainable cooling: A case study of a subtropical office building

This study comprehensively examines how a newly compiled extreme weather year (EWY) and climate change forecasts for 2050 and 2080 affect the energy usage, efficiency, and carbon emissions of chiller systems and thermal comfort in commercial buildings in a subtropical climate. The least-square support vector regression based on historical data (1993–2023) is used to justify hot weather conditions. EnergyPlus simulations predict annual cooling loads, electricity consumption, and predicted mean votes across different zones in a 40-story reference office building in subtropical Hong Kong. Compared to the typical meteorological year (TMY) case, the results show a minor increase in predicted peak cooling demand: 0.46 % in the EWY, 0.40 % in 2050 and 0.37 % in 2080. Thermal acceptability drops by 2.00–18.13 % in EWY, 0.41–15.78 % in 2050 and 4.15–27.79 % in 2080. Applying an ultra-efficient chiller system can lower annual electricity consumption by 12.16–13.37 %, contributing to the 30–40 % reduction target for carbon neutrality by 2050. Moreover, this advanced system can mitigate rising peak and annual carbon emissions associated with extreme heat. This study uniquely combines extreme weather analysis and climate forecasts to assess and improve the energy management of chiller systems, highlighting actionable strategies for sustainability in response to future climate challenges.